Soybean market filled with potential … and debate

The soybean outlook is similar to corn in that it’s filled with potential, but there’s also a lot of debate regarding production. And as the debate continues, prices may fluctuate.

In the August WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, USDA projected a record yield of 53.6 bushels per acre, but the agency also made a cut to harvested acreage, which lowered its total production estimate.

The next week, ProFarmer conducted its own tour, and their findings weren’t quite as robust as USDA’s.

“(ProFarmer) offered something more cautious and pegged yield at 53 bushels per acre and put production at about close to 4 million bushels below the USDA report,” said Allison Thompson, president of The Money Farm, in Ada, Minn. “So, unlike corn, the yield gap between the USDA and ProFarmer is pretty narrow, but it still just underscores there is still some uncertainty as the crop finishes.”

Thompson noted that field conditions are uneven across the Midwest, and while the early planting and emergence were ahead of normal, some areas are now struggling with excessive moisture and slow growth. There are also reports about disease pressure also starting to build in some areas.

“This late summer weather will play a major role in determining how severe some of these threats are as we get into harvest,” she said.

On the demand side, the tone is a bit more cautious, according to Thompson, noting that USDA did trim its production estimates as well as beginning stocks and ending stocks in the August update.

“Regardless of that, export sales are lagging pretty badly, especially for new crop. And that’s mostly tied to China being a nonexistent buyer,” she explained. “At the same time, the trade is already looking ahead to South America’s soybean planting window, which is quickly approaching. We’ll start talking about South America’s weather a lot more just because Brazil’s timing can heavily influence where China ultimately books or how much they book, potentially from the U.S.

“Right now, U.S. soybeans are currently the cheapest in the world, which should eventually help stimulate exports from other destinations, and we’ve seen that come in, but we definitely need more on the books to make that look attractive for the trade,” she added.

But although U.S. soybean exports are lagging, it’s a more positive story for the domestic crush industry.

“Domestic crush does remain a bright spot,” she said. “But without stronger Chinese demand, the market will struggle to gain upward momentum, especially as Chinese demand and U.S. production remain in question,” she said.

Overall, soybeans have a pretty mixed outlook. Record yields are possible on paper, but there are also some weather stresses and disease concerns that could impact final production numbers. “That does suggest there is some downside risk here for production,” she said.

But even with a good domestic crush, independent pricing, and tight global stocks providing a little bit of price support, Thompson pointed out that the slow export demand, especially with China waiting on South America, is keeping rallies in check.

“Just like last year, where we were printing (seasonal) lows around this time, I think some of that signifies that we may have already printed out our lows and hopefully we can move up higher,” she said.

One thing Thompson is noticing is that basis for soybeans is a real concern.

“Our area is an export market, and right now the support that we’re seeing for soybeans stems from oil, the biofuels, and domestic demand. And given our current supply channels, it doesn’t necessarily help the basis outlook – until we see some more demand surface, particularly from China,” she said.

“This is why our basis has been getting worse, despite the rally, because the elevators and these locations don’t need beans because we don’t have any demand, so when we do see these rallies, they’re quickly tanking it because they just don’t want the beans. Unfortunately, we could see that trend continue until we see some demand step in,” she continued.

“So, if you’re looking at harvest delivery, make sure you get some of those basis contracts in place because we could see it get worse, especially if we do see some issues at harvest and we do see a rally,” she added.

Thompson doesn’t see anything where there could be basis improvement between now and harvest, but she does feel there could be some improvement as we get into 2026.

“I know there’s a lot of producers talking about storing their beans this year, so with that you’ve just got to be very proactive on watching those deferred contracts. Even today (Aug. 25), if we’re looking at those May 2026 contracts, they’re trading near $11, so there is some opportunity out there, and I just encourage producers to stay ahead of it.”

Looking at local prices in Mahnomen, Minn., on Aug. 25, Thompson noted that for old crop soybean bids, cash bids for October were $9.13 and basis was $1.40 under. At one elevator in west central Minnesota regularly followed in this column, as of Aug. 25, the September cash price for soybeans was $9.46 and basis was -$1.10 cents under. The October 2025 futures price was listed at $10.56 and basis was -3 cents under.